Table 4 The influence of economic conditions

Decline of initial UB replacement rate

0.025

0.047

0.075**

0.125**

0.165***

(0.016)

(0.032)

(0.030)

(0.051)

(0.052)

Unemployment Gap

−0.194***

−0.666***

−1.221***

−1.711***

−2.000***

(0.061)

(0.120)

(0.179)

(0.261)

(0.329)

(Decline of initial UB replacement rate) × (Unemployment Gap)

0.002

0.011

0.029**

0.049***

0.061***

(0.005)

(0.011)

(0.012)

(0.018)

(0.019)

No. observations

492

463

435

407

379

R²

0.482

0.523

0.553

0.590

0.613

No. of countries

29

28

28

28

28

Country fixed effects

Yes

Yes

Yes

Yes

Yes

Year fixed effects

Yes

Yes

Yes

Yes

Yes

Panel B – Synthetic results of the employment impact of the UB reform at the minimum, median and maximum values of the unemployment gap (in percentage points)

Year after the shock

Year 1

Year 2

Year 3

Year 4

Year 5

Minimum

0.102

−0.201

−0.918

−1.559*

−1.876**

(0.237)

(0.479)

(0.557)

(0.778)

(0.873)

Median

0.184

0.327

0.490**

0.819**

1.097***

(0.117)

(0.228)

(0.215)

(0.364)

(0.372)

Maximum

0.226

0.607

1.235***

2.073***

2.661***

(0.198)

(0.435)

(0.445)

(0.687)

(0.699)