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Table 5 Sensitivity analysis

From: How quickly does structural reform pay off? An empirical analysis of the short-term effects of unemployment benefit reform

Panel A - Use of a more stringent criterion for the identification of shocks (2,5 standard deviation)

Year after the shock

Year 1

Year 2

Year 3

Year 4

Year 5

Decline of initial UB replacement rate 2.5 standard deviation threshold

0.026

0.036

0.054*

0.074*

0.106**

(0.019)

(0.035)

(0.031)

(0.041)

(0.043)

R2

0.453

0.455

0.435

0.426

0.426

Descriptive Statistics

     
 

Number of reform shocks

Mean

Standard deviation

Minimum

Maximum

Decline of initial UB replacement rate 2.5 standard deviation threshold

11

9.84

2.65

−7

−14,75

Panel B - Use of a less stringent criterion for the identification of shocks (1.5 standard deviation)

Year after the shock

Year 1

Year 2

Year 3

Year 4

Year 5

Decline of initial UB replacement rate 1.5 standard deviation threshold

0.038

0.063

0.093**

0.138**

0.171***

(0.023)

(0.039)

(0.043)

(0.051)

(0.051)

R2

0.454

0.456

0.436

0.429

0.429

Descriptive Statistics

     
 

Number of reform shocks

Mean

Standard deviation

Minimum

Maximum

Decline of initial UB replacement rate 1.5 standard deviation threshold

23

7.34

3.068

−4

−14.75

Panel C - Controlling for “reverse” reform shocks

Year after the shock

Year 1

Year 2

Year 3

Year 4

Year 5

Decline of initial UB replacement rate 2 standard deviation threshold

0.026

0.045

0.066*

0.094**

0.124**

(0.018)

(0.036)

(0.032)

(0.043)

(0.047)

Increase of initial UB replacement rate 2 standard deviation threshold

−0.008

−0.013

−0.016

−0.008

0.004

(0.019)

(0.040)

(0.042)

(0.037)

(0.040)

R2

0.453

0.456

0.436

0.427

0.427

Descriptive Statistics

     
 

Number of reform shocks

Mean

Standard deviation

Minimum

Maximum

Decline of initial UB replacement rate 2 standard deviation threshold

16

8.55

2.93

−5.50

−14.75

Increase of initial UB replacement rate 2 standard deviation threshold

10

18.84

8.61

11.54

38.46

Panel D –Controlling for “reverse” reform shocks (single variable including two types of shocks)

Year after the shock

Year 1

Year 2

Year 3

Year 4

Year 5

Change of initial UB replacement rate 2 standard deviation threshold

−0.013

−0.022

−0.028

−0.029

−0.027

(−1.06)

(−0.76)

(−0.84)

(−0.91)

(−0.77)

R2

0.453

0.455

0.435

0.426

0.424

Descriptive Statistics

     
 

Number of reform shocks

Mean

Standard deviation

Minimum

Maximum

Change of initial UB replacement rate 2 standard deviation threshold

26

1.99

14.71

−14.75

38.46

Panel E - Excluding country fixed effects

Year after the shock

Year 1

Year 2

Year 3

Year 4

Year 5

Decline of initial UB replacement rate 2 standard deviation threshold

0.044**

0.090***

0.155***

0.220**

0.283***

(0.017)

(0.028)

(0.046)

(0.081)

(0.094)

R2

0.460

0.448

0.408

0.380

0.358

Descriptive Statistics

     
 

Number of reform shocks

Mean

Standard deviation

Minimum

Maximum

Decline of initial UB replacement rate 2 standard deviation threshold

16

8.55

2.93

−5.50

−14.75

For all panels

     

No. observations

503

474

446

418

390

No. of countries

29

28

28

28

28

Year fixed effects

Yes

Yes

Yes

Yes

Yes

  1. Note: All regressions include country fixed effects except in Panel D. ***, ** and * represent statistical significance at the 1%, 5% and 10% levels, respectively. Robust standard errors are in parentheses.