| Change in employment | Change in average hours worked | Change in total hours worked | ||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | Model 1 | Model 2 | Model 3 | Model 1 | Model 2 | Model 3 | Model 1 | Model 2 | Model 3 |
 | OLS | OLS with institutions | IV with institutions | OLS | OLS with institutions | IV with institutions | OLS | OLS with institutions | IV with institutions |
A. Contemporaneous output shocks and take-up rate | |||||||||
Output growth | 0.194 *** | 0.319 *** | -6.031 | 0.258 *** | 0.208 | -6.977 | 0.454 *** | 0.452 | -13.009 |
(0.050) | (0.101) | (5.291) | (0.097) | (0.256) | (6.333) | (0.110) | (0.288) | (9.050) | |
STW take-up rate | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.276 | 0.002 | 0.002 | 0.317 | 0.002 | 0.002 | 0.593 |
(0.001) | (0.001) | (0.236) | (0.002) | (0.002) | (0.278) | (0.002) | (0.002) | (0.400) | |
Output growth times STW take-up rate | 0.002 | 0.022 | 0.080 * | 0.168 ** | 0.146 * | 0.125 | 0.172 ** | 0.164 ** | 0.206 * |
(0.033) | (0.035) | (0.045) | (0.069) | (0.077) | (0.107) | (0.073) | (0.081) | (0.110) | |
Overall strictness of employment protection | Â | -0.009 ** | -0.357 | Â | -0.001 | -0.405 | Â | -0.009 | -0.762 |
(0.004) | (0.302) | (0.013) | (0.357) | (0.013) | (0.513) | ||||
UB net replacement rate (averageover 60 months) |  | 0.000 ** | -0.005 |  | 0.000 | -0.006 |  | 0.000 | -0.011 |
(0.000) | (0.004) | (0.000) | (0.005) | (0.000) | (0.007) | ||||
Output growth times overall strictness of employment protection | Â | -0.062 | 1.192 | Â | 0.037 | 1.669 | Â | 0.013 | 2.861 |
(0.055) | (1.149) | (0.130) | (1.401) | (0.144) | (1.984) | ||||
Output growth times UB net replacement rate (average over 60) | Â | -0.001 | 0.059 | Â | 0001 | 0.066 | Â | 0.000 | 0.125 |
(0.002) | (0.048) | (0.004) | (0.058) | (0.005) | (0.082) | ||||
Number of countries | 23 | 23 | 13 | 23 | 23 | 13 | 23 | 23 | 13 |
Number of observations | 633 | 617 | 354 | 633 | 617 | 354 | 633 | 617 | 354 |
R-squared | 0.39 | 0.39 | 0.34 | 0.94 | 0.94 | 0.93 | 0.92 | 0.92 | 0.91 |
B. Output shocks and take-up rate lagged one quarter | |||||||||
Output growth | 0.160 ** | 0.097 | -0.052 | -0.151 | -0.207 | -1.258 *** | 0.008 | -0.226 | -1.310 *** |
(0.065) | (0.105) | (0.217) | (0.105) | (0.280) | (0.443) | (0.129) | (0.305) | (0.496) | |
STW take-up rate | 0.001 | 0.001 | 0.004 | 0.005 ** | 0.005 ** | 0.040 *** | 0.005 ** | 0.006 ** | 0.044 *** |
(0.001) | (0.001) | (0.003) | (0.002) | (0.002) | (0.007) | (0.002) | (0.002) | (0.007) | |
Output growth times STW take-up rate | -0.083 ** | -0.063 | -0.057 | 0.070 | 0.089 | 0.305 *** | -0.009 | 0.023 | 0.249* |
(0.038) | (0.041) | (0.051) | (0.063) | (0.071) | (0.117) | (0.081) | (0.085) | (0.139) | |
Overall strictness of employment protection | Â | -0.009 ** | -0.009 | Â | -0.018 | -0.060 *** | Â | -0.026* | -0.068 *** |
(0.004) | (0.006) | (0.015) | (0.016) | (0.015) | (0.017) | ||||
UB net replacement rate (averageover 60 months) |  | 0.000 ** | 0.000 ** |  | 0.000 | -0.001 * |  | 0.000 | -0.001 ** |
(0.000) | (0.000) | (0.000) | (0.000) | (0.000) | (0.000) | ||||
Output growth times overall strictness of employment protection | Â | 0.044 | 0.030 | Â | 0.085 | 0.043 | Â | 0.184 | 0.073 |
(0.064) | (0.108) | (0.143) | (0.214) | (0.151) | (0.218) | ||||
Output growth times UB net replacement rate (average over 60) | Â | -0.002 | 0 | Â | -0.004 | 0.009* | Â | -0.005 | 0.01 |
(0.003) | (0.003) | (0.005) | (0.005) | (0.005) | (0.006) | ||||
Number of countries | 23 | 23 | 13 | 23 | 23 | 13 | 23 | 23 | 13 |
Number of observations | 614 | 598 | 344 | 614 | 598 | 344 | 614 | 598 | 344 |
R-squared | 0.45 | 0.48 | 0.42 | 0.94 | 0.94 | 0.94 | 0.93 | 0.93 | 0.93 |
C. Output shocks and take-up rate lagged two quarters | |||||||||
Output growth | 0.290 *** | 0.212 ** | 0.260 | -0.121 | -0.338 | -0.400 | 0.170 | -0.230 | -0.140 |
(0.046) | (0.098) | (0.177) | (0.098) | (0.270) | (0.403) | (0.113) | (0.293) | (0.441) | |
STW take-up rate | 0.000 | 0.000 | -0.001 | 0.003 * | 0.003* | 0.016 *** | 0.003 | 0.003 | 0.015 ** |
(0.001) | (0.001) | (0.003) | (0.002) | (0.002) | (0.006) | (0.002) | (0.002) | (0.006) | |
Output growth times STW take-up rate | -0.133 *** | -0.134 *** | -0.139 *** | -0.134 * | -0.157 ** | -0.218 ** | -0.262 *** | -0.293 *** | -0.357 *** |
(0.038) | (0.039) | (0.047) | (0.070) | (0.076) | (0.101) | (0.080) | (0.086) | (0.106) | |
Overall strictness of employment protection | Â | -0.008 * | 0.000 | Â | -0.002 | -0.015 | Â | -0.010 | -0.015 |
(0.005) | (0.006) | (0.015) | (0.017) | (0.015) | (0.017) | ||||
UB net replacement rate (averageover 60 months) |  | 0.000 * | 0.000 |  | 0.000 | 0.000 |  | 0.000 | 0.000 |
(0.000) | (0.000) | (0.000) | (0.000) | (0.000) | (0.000) | ||||
Output growth times overall strictness of employment protection | Â | -0.011 | -0.152 ** | Â | 0.004 | -0.023 | Â | 0.044 | -0.175 |
(0.047) | (0.074) | (0.126) | (0.209) | (0.138) | (0.218) | ||||
Output growth times UB net replacement rate (average over 60 | Â | 0.002 | 0.005 ** | Â | 0.006 | 0.008 | Â | 0.009** | 0.014 ** |
(0.002) | (0.003) | (0.004) | (0.005) | (0.004) | (0.006) | ||||
Number of countries | 23 | 23 | 13 | 23 | 23 | 13 | 23 | 23 | 13 |
Number of observations | 593 | 577 | 333 | 593 | 577 | 333 | 593 | 577 | 333 |
R-squared | 0.48 | 0.51 | 0.46 | 0.94 | 0.94 | 0.94 | 0.932 | 0.93 | 0.93 |