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Table 4 Static results on the impact of STW on the labour market outcomes of permanent workers

From: The role of short-time work schemes during the global financial crisis and early recovery: a cross-country analysis

 

Change in employment

Change in average hours worked

Change in total hours worked

 

Model 1

Model 2

Model 3

Model 1

Model 2

Model 3

Model 1

Model 2

Model 3

 

OLS

OLS with institutions

IV with institutions

OLS

OLS with institutions

IV with institutions

OLS

OLS with institutions

IV with institutions

A. Contemporaneous output shocks and take-up rate

Output growth

0.194 ***

0.319 ***

-6.031

0.258 ***

0.208

-6.977

0.454 ***

0.452

-13.009

(0.050)

(0.101)

(5.291)

(0.097)

(0.256)

(6.333)

(0.110)

(0.288)

(9.050)

STW take-up rate

0.000

0.000

0.276

0.002

0.002

0.317

0.002

0.002

0.593

(0.001)

(0.001)

(0.236)

(0.002)

(0.002)

(0.278)

(0.002)

(0.002)

(0.400)

Output growth times STW take-up rate

0.002

0.022

0.080 *

0.168 **

0.146 *

0.125

0.172 **

0.164 **

0.206 *

(0.033)

(0.035)

(0.045)

(0.069)

(0.077)

(0.107)

(0.073)

(0.081)

(0.110)

Overall strictness of employment protection

 

-0.009 **

-0.357

 

-0.001

-0.405

 

-0.009

-0.762

(0.004)

(0.302)

(0.013)

(0.357)

(0.013)

(0.513)

UB net replacement rate (averageover 60 months)

 

0.000 **

-0.005

 

0.000

-0.006

 

0.000

-0.011

(0.000)

(0.004)

(0.000)

(0.005)

(0.000)

(0.007)

Output growth times overall strictness of employment protection

 

-0.062

1.192

 

0.037

1.669

 

0.013

2.861

(0.055)

(1.149)

(0.130)

(1.401)

(0.144)

(1.984)

Output growth times UB net replacement rate (average over 60)

 

-0.001

0.059

 

0001

0.066

 

0.000

0.125

(0.002)

(0.048)

(0.004)

(0.058)

(0.005)

(0.082)

Number of countries

23

23

13

23

23

13

23

23

13

Number of observations

633

617

354

633

617

354

633

617

354

R-squared

0.39

0.39

0.34

0.94

0.94

0.93

0.92

0.92

0.91

B. Output shocks and take-up rate lagged one quarter

Output growth

0.160 **

0.097

-0.052

-0.151

-0.207

-1.258 ***

0.008

-0.226

-1.310 ***

(0.065)

(0.105)

(0.217)

(0.105)

(0.280)

(0.443)

(0.129)

(0.305)

(0.496)

STW take-up rate

0.001

0.001

0.004

0.005 **

0.005 **

0.040 ***

0.005 **

0.006 **

0.044 ***

(0.001)

(0.001)

(0.003)

(0.002)

(0.002)

(0.007)

(0.002)

(0.002)

(0.007)

Output growth times STW take-up rate

-0.083 **

-0.063

-0.057

0.070

0.089

0.305 ***

-0.009

0.023

0.249*

(0.038)

(0.041)

(0.051)

(0.063)

(0.071)

(0.117)

(0.081)

(0.085)

(0.139)

Overall strictness of employment protection

 

-0.009 **

-0.009

 

-0.018

-0.060 ***

 

-0.026*

-0.068 ***

(0.004)

(0.006)

(0.015)

(0.016)

(0.015)

(0.017)

UB net replacement rate (averageover 60 months)

 

0.000 **

0.000 **

 

0.000

-0.001 *

 

0.000

-0.001 **

(0.000)

(0.000)

(0.000)

(0.000)

(0.000)

(0.000)

Output growth times overall strictness of employment protection

 

0.044

0.030

 

0.085

0.043

 

0.184

0.073

(0.064)

(0.108)

(0.143)

(0.214)

(0.151)

(0.218)

Output growth times UB net replacement rate (average over 60)

 

-0.002

0

 

-0.004

0.009*

 

-0.005

0.01

(0.003)

(0.003)

(0.005)

(0.005)

(0.005)

(0.006)

Number of countries

23

23

13

23

23

13

23

23

13

Number of observations

614

598

344

614

598

344

614

598

344

R-squared

0.45

0.48

0.42

0.94

0.94

0.94

0.93

0.93

0.93

C. Output shocks and take-up rate lagged two quarters

Output growth

0.290 ***

0.212 **

0.260

-0.121

-0.338

-0.400

0.170

-0.230

-0.140

(0.046)

(0.098)

(0.177)

(0.098)

(0.270)

(0.403)

(0.113)

(0.293)

(0.441)

STW take-up rate

0.000

0.000

-0.001

0.003 *

0.003*

0.016 ***

0.003

0.003

0.015 **

(0.001)

(0.001)

(0.003)

(0.002)

(0.002)

(0.006)

(0.002)

(0.002)

(0.006)

Output growth times STW take-up rate

-0.133 ***

-0.134 ***

-0.139 ***

-0.134 *

-0.157 **

-0.218 **

-0.262 ***

-0.293 ***

-0.357 ***

(0.038)

(0.039)

(0.047)

(0.070)

(0.076)

(0.101)

(0.080)

(0.086)

(0.106)

Overall strictness of employment protection

 

-0.008 *

0.000

 

-0.002

-0.015

 

-0.010

-0.015

(0.005)

(0.006)

(0.015)

(0.017)

(0.015)

(0.017)

UB net replacement rate (averageover 60 months)

 

0.000 *

0.000

 

0.000

0.000

 

0.000

0.000

(0.000)

(0.000)

(0.000)

(0.000)

(0.000)

(0.000)

Output growth times overall strictness of employment protection

 

-0.011

-0.152 **

 

0.004

-0.023

 

0.044

-0.175

(0.047)

(0.074)

(0.126)

(0.209)

(0.138)

(0.218)

Output growth times UB net replacement rate (average over 60

 

0.002

0.005 **

 

0.006

0.008

 

0.009**

0.014 **

(0.002)

(0.003)

(0.004)

(0.005)

(0.004)

(0.006)

Number of countries

23

23

13

23

23

13

23

23

13

Number of observations

593

577

333

593

577

333

593

577

333

R-squared

0.48

0.51

0.46

0.94

0.94

0.94

0.932

0.93

0.93

  1. ***, **, *: Statistically significant at the 1%, 5% and 10% level, respectively.
  2. Robust standard errors in brackets. Regressions include country time quarter dummies and year dummies.
  3. a) The use of STW, the dependent variable of the regression analysis, is defined as the number of participants in STW over total dependent employment.
  4. Source: Authors’ estimates.