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Table 4 Static results on the impact of STW on the labour market outcomes of permanent workers

From: The role of short-time work schemes during the global financial crisis and early recovery: a cross-country analysis

  Change in employment Change in average hours worked Change in total hours worked
  Model 1 Model 2 Model 3 Model 1 Model 2 Model 3 Model 1 Model 2 Model 3
  OLS OLS with institutions IV with institutions OLS OLS with institutions IV with institutions OLS OLS with institutions IV with institutions
A. Contemporaneous output shocks and take-up rate
Output growth 0.194 *** 0.319 *** -6.031 0.258 *** 0.208 -6.977 0.454 *** 0.452 -13.009
(0.050) (0.101) (5.291) (0.097) (0.256) (6.333) (0.110) (0.288) (9.050)
STW take-up rate 0.000 0.000 0.276 0.002 0.002 0.317 0.002 0.002 0.593
(0.001) (0.001) (0.236) (0.002) (0.002) (0.278) (0.002) (0.002) (0.400)
Output growth times STW take-up rate 0.002 0.022 0.080 * 0.168 ** 0.146 * 0.125 0.172 ** 0.164 ** 0.206 *
(0.033) (0.035) (0.045) (0.069) (0.077) (0.107) (0.073) (0.081) (0.110)
Overall strictness of employment protection   -0.009 ** -0.357   -0.001 -0.405   -0.009 -0.762
(0.004) (0.302) (0.013) (0.357) (0.013) (0.513)
UB net replacement rate (averageover 60 months)   0.000 ** -0.005   0.000 -0.006   0.000 -0.011
(0.000) (0.004) (0.000) (0.005) (0.000) (0.007)
Output growth times overall strictness of employment protection   -0.062 1.192   0.037 1.669   0.013 2.861
(0.055) (1.149) (0.130) (1.401) (0.144) (1.984)
Output growth times UB net replacement rate (average over 60)   -0.001 0.059   0001 0.066   0.000 0.125
(0.002) (0.048) (0.004) (0.058) (0.005) (0.082)
Number of countries 23 23 13 23 23 13 23 23 13
Number of observations 633 617 354 633 617 354 633 617 354
R-squared 0.39 0.39 0.34 0.94 0.94 0.93 0.92 0.92 0.91
B. Output shocks and take-up rate lagged one quarter
Output growth 0.160 ** 0.097 -0.052 -0.151 -0.207 -1.258 *** 0.008 -0.226 -1.310 ***
(0.065) (0.105) (0.217) (0.105) (0.280) (0.443) (0.129) (0.305) (0.496)
STW take-up rate 0.001 0.001 0.004 0.005 ** 0.005 ** 0.040 *** 0.005 ** 0.006 ** 0.044 ***
(0.001) (0.001) (0.003) (0.002) (0.002) (0.007) (0.002) (0.002) (0.007)
Output growth times STW take-up rate -0.083 ** -0.063 -0.057 0.070 0.089 0.305 *** -0.009 0.023 0.249*
(0.038) (0.041) (0.051) (0.063) (0.071) (0.117) (0.081) (0.085) (0.139)
Overall strictness of employment protection   -0.009 ** -0.009   -0.018 -0.060 ***   -0.026* -0.068 ***
(0.004) (0.006) (0.015) (0.016) (0.015) (0.017)
UB net replacement rate (averageover 60 months)   0.000 ** 0.000 **   0.000 -0.001 *   0.000 -0.001 **
(0.000) (0.000) (0.000) (0.000) (0.000) (0.000)
Output growth times overall strictness of employment protection   0.044 0.030   0.085 0.043   0.184 0.073
(0.064) (0.108) (0.143) (0.214) (0.151) (0.218)
Output growth times UB net replacement rate (average over 60)   -0.002 0   -0.004 0.009*   -0.005 0.01
(0.003) (0.003) (0.005) (0.005) (0.005) (0.006)
Number of countries 23 23 13 23 23 13 23 23 13
Number of observations 614 598 344 614 598 344 614 598 344
R-squared 0.45 0.48 0.42 0.94 0.94 0.94 0.93 0.93 0.93
C. Output shocks and take-up rate lagged two quarters
Output growth 0.290 *** 0.212 ** 0.260 -0.121 -0.338 -0.400 0.170 -0.230 -0.140
(0.046) (0.098) (0.177) (0.098) (0.270) (0.403) (0.113) (0.293) (0.441)
STW take-up rate 0.000 0.000 -0.001 0.003 * 0.003* 0.016 *** 0.003 0.003 0.015 **
(0.001) (0.001) (0.003) (0.002) (0.002) (0.006) (0.002) (0.002) (0.006)
Output growth times STW take-up rate -0.133 *** -0.134 *** -0.139 *** -0.134 * -0.157 ** -0.218 ** -0.262 *** -0.293 *** -0.357 ***
(0.038) (0.039) (0.047) (0.070) (0.076) (0.101) (0.080) (0.086) (0.106)
Overall strictness of employment protection   -0.008 * 0.000   -0.002 -0.015   -0.010 -0.015
(0.005) (0.006) (0.015) (0.017) (0.015) (0.017)
UB net replacement rate (averageover 60 months)   0.000 * 0.000   0.000 0.000   0.000 0.000
(0.000) (0.000) (0.000) (0.000) (0.000) (0.000)
Output growth times overall strictness of employment protection   -0.011 -0.152 **   0.004 -0.023   0.044 -0.175
(0.047) (0.074) (0.126) (0.209) (0.138) (0.218)
Output growth times UB net replacement rate (average over 60   0.002 0.005 **   0.006 0.008   0.009** 0.014 **
(0.002) (0.003) (0.004) (0.005) (0.004) (0.006)
Number of countries 23 23 13 23 23 13 23 23 13
Number of observations 593 577 333 593 577 333 593 577 333
R-squared 0.48 0.51 0.46 0.94 0.94 0.94 0.932 0.93 0.93
  1. ***, **, *: Statistically significant at the 1%, 5% and 10% level, respectively.
  2. Robust standard errors in brackets. Regressions include country time quarter dummies and year dummies.
  3. a) The use of STW, the dependent variable of the regression analysis, is defined as the number of participants in STW over total dependent employment.
  4. Source: Authors’ estimates.