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Table 6 Dynamic results of the impact of STW on unemployment rates

From: The role of short-time work schemes during the global financial crisis and early recovery: a cross-country analysis

  Change in unemployment benefit recipiency rate Change in ILO unemployment rate
  Model 1: OLS Model 2: OLS with institutions Model 3: IV with institutions Model 1: OLS Model 2: OLS with institutions Model 3: IV with institutions
Lagged dependent variable in level -0.020 -0.028 -0.022 -0.009 -0.015 0.02
   (0.020) (0.017) (0.018 (0.015) (0.014) (0.012)
Output 0.003 0.006 0.024 0.020 ** 0.023 *** 0.015
   (0.006) (0.007) (0.019) (0.008) (0.008) (0.011)
Output growth t -0.066 *** -0.056 0.097 -0.130 *** -0.083 0.112
(0.023) (0.046) (0.152) (0.019) (0.054) (0.101)
t-1 -0.087 *** -0.112 ** -0.101 ** -0.136 *** -0.070 -0.026
(0.019) (0.049) (0.050) (0.021) (0.047) (0.074)
t-2 -0.041 * -0.025 0.020 -0.107 *** -0.086 * -0.017
(0.021) (0.042) (0.059) (0.023) (0.047) (0.062)
STW take-up rate t 0.001 0.000 -0.011 -0.001 -0.001 -0.004
(0.001) (0.001) (0.009) (0.001) (0.001) (0.005)
t-1 -0.001 -0.001 0.001 0.002 0.001 -0.003
(0.001) (0.001) (0.002) (0.001) (0.001) (0.002)
t-2 0.002 ** 0.001 * -0.001 -0.001 -0.001 -0.001
(0.001) (0.001) (0.001) (0.001) (0.001) (0.001)
Output growth times STW take-up rate t -0.008 0.015 0.033* 0.026 0.032 0.028
(0.018) (0.016) (0.018) (0.021) (0.021) (0.028)
t-1 -0.014 0.005 0.038 ** 0.056 *** 0.053 *** 0.080 ***
(0.014) (0.014) (0.019) (0.017) (0.019) (0.026)
t-2 0.021 * 0.032 *** 0.046 ** 0.031 0.039 * 0.020
(0.012) (0.011) (0.017) (0.020) (0.020) (0.032)
Overall strictness of employment protection t   -0.001 0.012   0.003 0.011
(0.005) (0.010) (0.005) (0.010)
t-1   -0.001 -0.005   0.001 0.001
(0.006) (0.006) (0.006) (0.009)
t-2   -0.003 0.000   -0.003 -0.005
(0.004) (0.004) (0.003) (0.005)
Output growth times overall strictness of employment protectionOu t   0.025 -0.008   -0.034 -0.064
(0.024) (0.049) (0.028) (0.044)
t-1   0.031 0.042   0.000 -0.033
(0.028) (0.031) (0.027) (0.034)
t-2   0.017 -0.012   -0.026 -0.004
(0.021) (0.026) (0.024) (0.027)
UB net replacement rate (average over 60 months) t   0.000 ** 0.000 **   0.000 0.000
(0.000) (0.000) (0.000) (0.000)
t-1   0.000 0.000   0.000 0.000
(0.000) (0.000) (0.000) (0.000)
t-2   0.000 0.000   0.000 0.000
(0.000) (0.000) (0.000) (0.000)
Output growth times UB net replacement rate (average over 60 months) t   -0.002 ** -0.004 **   0.001 -0.001
(0.001) (0.002) (0.001) (0.001)
t-1   -0.002 * -0.003 ***   -0.002 ** -0.001
(0.001) (0.001) (0.001) (0.001)
t-2   -0.002 *** -0.002 ***   0.000 -0.001
(0.001) (0.001) (0.001) (0.001)
Number of countries 23 23 13 23 23 13
Number of observations 372 367 210 592 576 383
R-squared 0.819 0.868 0.890 0.618 0.671 0.602
  1. Robust standard errors in brackets. Regressions include country time quarter dummies and year dummies.
  2. a) Output in logs.
  3. ***, **, *: Statistically significant at the 1%, 5% and 10% level, respectively.
  4. Source: Authors' estimates.