The role of short-time work schemes during the global financial crisis and early recovery: a cross-country analysis

Hijzen, Alexander; Martin, Sebastien

doi:10.1186/2193-9004-2-5

Table 6 Dynamic results of the impact of STW on unemployment rates

From: The role of short-time work schemes during the global financial crisis and early recovery: a cross-country analysis

		Change in unemployment benefit recipiency rate			Change in ILO unemployment rate
		Model 1: OLS	Model 2: OLS with institutions	Model 3: IV with institutions	Model 1: OLS	Model 2: OLS with institutions	Model 3: IV with institutions
Lagged dependent variable in level		-0.020	-0.028	-0.022	-0.009	-0.015	0.02
		(0.020)	(0.017)	(0.018	(0.015)	(0.014)	(0.012)
Output		0.003	0.006	0.024	0.020 **	0.023 ***	0.015
		(0.006)	(0.007)	(0.019)	(0.008)	(0.008)	(0.011)
Output growth	t	-0.066 ***	-0.056	0.097	-0.130 ***	-0.083	0.112
	t	(0.023)	(0.046)	(0.152)	(0.019)	(0.054)	(0.101)
	t-1	-0.087 ***	-0.112 **	-0.101 **	-0.136 ***	-0.070	-0.026
	t-1	(0.019)	(0.049)	(0.050)	(0.021)	(0.047)	(0.074)
	t-2	-0.041 *	-0.025	0.020	-0.107 ***	-0.086 *	-0.017
	t-2	(0.021)	(0.042)	(0.059)	(0.023)	(0.047)	(0.062)
STW take-up rate	t	0.001	0.000	-0.011	-0.001	-0.001	-0.004
	t	(0.001)	(0.001)	(0.009)	(0.001)	(0.001)	(0.005)
	t-1	-0.001	-0.001	0.001	0.002	0.001	-0.003
	t-1	(0.001)	(0.001)	(0.002)	(0.001)	(0.001)	(0.002)
	t-2	0.002 **	0.001 *	-0.001	-0.001	-0.001	-0.001
	t-2	(0.001)	(0.001)	(0.001)	(0.001)	(0.001)	(0.001)
Output growth times STW take-up rate	t	-0.008	0.015	0.033*	0.026	0.032	0.028
	t	(0.018)	(0.016)	(0.018)	(0.021)	(0.021)	(0.028)
	t-1	-0.014	0.005	0.038 **	0.056 ***	0.053 ***	0.080 ***
	t-1	(0.014)	(0.014)	(0.019)	(0.017)	(0.019)	(0.026)
	t-2	0.021 *	0.032 ***	0.046 **	0.031	0.039 *	0.020
	t-2	(0.012)	(0.011)	(0.017)	(0.020)	(0.020)	(0.032)
Overall strictness of employment protection	t		-0.001	0.012		0.003	0.011
	t		(0.005)	(0.010)		(0.005)	(0.010)
	t-1		-0.001	-0.005		0.001	0.001
	t-1		(0.006)	(0.006)		(0.006)	(0.009)
	t-2		-0.003	0.000		-0.003	-0.005
	t-2		(0.004)	(0.004)		(0.003)	(0.005)
Output growth times overall strictness of employment protectionOu	t		0.025	-0.008		-0.034	-0.064
	t		(0.024)	(0.049)		(0.028)	(0.044)
	t-1		0.031	0.042		0.000	-0.033
	t-1		(0.028)	(0.031)		(0.027)	(0.034)
	t-2		0.017	-0.012		-0.026	-0.004
	t-2		(0.021)	(0.026)		(0.024)	(0.027)
UB net replacement rate (average over 60 months)	t		0.000 **	0.000 **		0.000	0.000
	t		(0.000)	(0.000)		(0.000)	(0.000)
	t-1		0.000	0.000		0.000	0.000
	t-1		(0.000)	(0.000)		(0.000)	(0.000)
	t-2		0.000	0.000		0.000	0.000
	t-2		(0.000)	(0.000)		(0.000)	(0.000)
Output growth times UB net replacement rate (average over 60 months)	t		-0.002 **	-0.004 **		0.001	-0.001
	t		(0.001)	(0.002)		(0.001)	(0.001)
	t-1		-0.002 *	-0.003 ***		-0.002 **	-0.001
	t-1		(0.001)	(0.001)		(0.001)	(0.001)
	t-2		-0.002 ***	-0.002 ***		0.000	-0.001
	t-2		(0.001)	(0.001)		(0.001)	(0.001)
Number of countries		23	23	13	23	23	13
Number of observations		372	367	210	592	576	383
R-squared		0.819	0.868	0.890	0.618	0.671	0.602

Robust standard errors in brackets. Regressions include country time quarter dummies and year dummies.
a) Output in logs.
***, **, *: Statistically significant at the 1%, 5% and 10% level, respectively.
Source: Authors' estimates.

Back to article page