From: Fiscal consolidation and unemployment: does EPL matter?: A look at EU countries
(1) | (2) | (3) | (4) | (5) | (6) | (7) | (8) | (9) | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Action-based fiscal policy variables, 13 countries EU, 1980-2009 | “Top-down” fiscal policy variables, EU27, 1980-2010 | ||||||||
Dependent variable: cyclical unemployment | Budget balance | Revenue | Expenditure | Budget balance | Budget balance | Budget balance | Change in structural balance | Change in structural revenue | Change in structural primary expenditure |
Explanatory variables | action-based | action-based | action-based | action-based | action-based | action-based | |||
Cyclical unemployment (1 lag) | 1.206** | 1.220** | 1.194** | 0.731** | 1.217** | 1.206** | 1.098** | 1.094** | 1.063** |
[27.46] | [29.89] | [27.45] | [29.23] | [30.05] | [0.0441] | [19.30] | [19.74] | [15.58] | |
Cyclical unemployment (2 lags) | −0.609** | −0.611** | −0.607** | −0.614** | −0.610** | −0.491** | −0.485** | −0.458** | |
[−17.67] | [−16.80] | [−18.92] | [−16.61] | [0.0356] | [−10.63] | [−10.52] | [−8.217] | ||
Fiscal policy variable | 0.0796+ | 0.0184 | −0.160* | 0.103 | 0.0751 | 0.142 | −0.0368 | −0.138* | |
[2.009] | [0.285] | [−2.609] | [1.595] | [0.0465] | [1.423] | [−1.073] | [−2.738] | ||
Fiscal policy variable (1 lag) | 0.0410 | 0.0132 | |||||||
[1.072] | [0.0466] | ||||||||
Constant | 0.307 | −0.236* | 0.303 | 0.0972 | 0.340+ | 0.308 | −0.355** | −0.289** | 0.221 |
[1.682] | [−2.910] | [1.694] | [0.455] | [1.801] | [0.182] | [−3.294] | [−2.984] | [0.983] | |
Observations | 353 | 353 | 353 | 366 | 353 | 353 | 546 | 547 | 548 |
R-squared | 0.864 | 0.862 | 0.865 | 0.779 | 0.862 | 0.864 | 0.748 | 0.746 | 0.740 |
Number of countries | 13 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 27 | 27 | 27 |