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Table 4 Estimates of differences in allowance rates by gubernatorial term length before 2000

From: The political economy of the disability insurance: theory and evidence of gubernatorial learning

  (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) (9) (10) (11) (12)
Dependent variable Disability Insurance (DI) Concurrent (DI + SSI) Disability Insurance (DI) Concurrent (DI + SSI)
  allowance rate (in %) allowance rate (in %) log-applications (in %) log-applications (in %)
Mean 43.90 30.08 892.8 870.8
=1 if multi-term governor 1.31** 1.35** 0.91** 1.67*** 1.61** 1.24*** -2.36* -0.56 0.48 -2.21 -1.15 -1.48
  (0.51) (0.62) (0.43) (0.57) (0.65) (0.45) (1.38) (1.33) (1.59) (1.70) (1.65) (2.40)
=1 if governor cannot -1.28** -1.01 -0.83* -1.88*** -1.67*** -0.86* 3.46** 1.79 0.07 3.88** 3.16* 0.20
run again             
  (0.63) (0.63) (0.47) (0.63) (0.61) (0.45) (1.66) (1.49) (1.88) (1.87) (1.68) (2.62)
=1 if the previous governor   0.84 0.48   0.21 0.62   -0.02 2.18   -0.26 -3.43
is from the same party             
   (0.54) (0.43)   (0.53) (0.44)   (1.22) (1.84)   (1.67) (2.44)
Election year   0.15 0.06   -0.12 0.48**   -0.86 -1.06*   0.05 0.88
   (0.31) (0.18)   (0.31) (0.19)   (0.71) (0.59)   (0.84) (0.80)
Employed/Population   32.56** 21.04**   -1.19 3.64   -261.26*** -278.19***   -226.33*** -349.03***
   (16.09) (8.35)   (17.59) (7.81)   (31.42) (33.76)   (44.35) (50.08)
Mean personal income   -0.05 -0.15**   -0.01 -0.25***   0.26 1.31***   -0.44 -0.01
   (0.19) (0.07)   (0.17) (0.07)   (0.51) (0.31)   (0.54) (0.43)
% of pop below 100% of poverty level   0.72 -7.85   -7.38 -19.16***   15.95 28.17   1.12 25.41
   (11.83) (6.43)   (10.40) (6.35)   (22.26) (24.36)   (27.85) (31.37)
% of working age pop (18 ≤age≤64)   -25.99 33.05**   2.74 60.77***   -32.93 237.86***   47.30 120.31*
   (23.00) (13.12)   (21.90) (13.31)   (45.63) (46.76)   (51.65) (64.38)
Married   -8.48 -31.88***   -27.65 -42.76***   104.62*** -19.24   -28.11 17.71
   (19.29) (11.75)   (18.75) (12.07)   (39.94) (44.30)   (48.96) (58.78)
White   1.14 10.35***   6.42 3.32   -23.60 -239.73***   -4.40 -273.05***
   (10.22) (3.23)   (9.86) (2.55)   (23.83) (16.92)   (25.81) (24.31)
Age-adjusted-rate   -0.00 -0.04***   0.01 -0.02***   0.01 0.10***   0.09** 0.00
   (0.01) (0.00)   (0.01) (0.00)   (0.02) (0.02)   (0.04) (0.03)
DI replacement rate   -2.38 0.77   10.71 -2.05   -110.02*** -72.10***   -203.69*** -267.26***
   (12.63) (5.90)   (12.25) (6.24)   (31.39) (25.18)   (43.19) (33.56)
UI replacement rate   1.40 -7.66   10.87 5.48   28.12 -0.92   39.02 -37.99
   (6.26) (5.24)   (7.99) (5.36)   (18.51) (23.17)   (28.70) (30.26)
State FE Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y
Year FE Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y
Clustered standard errors Y Y N Y Y N Y Y N Y Y N
Estimation method OLS OLS GLS OLS OLS GLS OLS OLS GLS OLS OLS GLS
Observations 749 708 708 749 708 708 749 708 708 749 708 708
R-squared 0.791 0.795 0.729 0.730 0.993 0.994   0.991 0.992
  1. Heteroskedasticity and autocorrelation (4 lags) robust standard errors at the state level in parentheses. Coefficients that are significant at the.10 [.05] (.01) are marked with *[**](***). Regressions all include additional controls for state marriage rates and age-adjusted state death rates.