Tax structure and revenue instability: the Great Recession and the states

Table 3 Alternative measures of potential revenue exposure

Potential change in total tax revenue per return	Mean	Std Dev	Min	Max	Rank correlation with base case
Base case¹	−255	215	−874	214
Counterfactual simulations:
I (National average tax burden)²	−251	201	−781	253	.93***
II (National average tax progressivity)³	−251	197	−866	219	.95***
III (National average AGI change)⁴	−262	85	−421	−78	.47***
III-A (National average AGI change-top 5% only)⁵	−262	126	−516	17	.79***
III-B (National average AGI change-next 15% only)⁶	−254	196	−874	122	.99***
III-C (National average AGI change-bottom 80% only)⁷	−255	186	−852	98	.97***
Actual tax change per return	−138	582	−1,128	2,596	.46***

***p < .01.
Notes:
¹Potential change in total tax revenues per return, based on state-specific actual change in AGI. state-specific tax progressivity, and state-specific average tax burden.
²Simulated potential change in tax revenues, based on state-specific actual change in AGI, state-specific tax progressivity, but national average of states’ average tax burdens.
³Simulated potential change in tax revenues, based on state-specific actual change in AGI, national average of states' tax progressivity, and state-specific average tax burden.
⁴Simulated potential change in tax revenues, based on national average of states' change in AGI, state-specific tax progressivity, and state-specific average tax burden.
⁵Simulated potential change in tax revenues, based on national average of states' change in AGI for top 5%, state-specific tax progressivity, and state-specific average tax burden.
⁶Simulated potential change in tax revenues, based on national average of states' change in AGI for next 15%, state-specific tax progressivity, and state-specific average tax burden.
⁷Simulated potential change in tax revenues, based on national average of states' change in AGI for bottom 80%, state-specific tax progressivity, and state-specific average tax burden.