Tax structure and revenue instability: the Great Recession and the states

Table 5 Regression models for change in total tax revenue per return

Variable	(1)	(2)	(3)
Potential Revenue Exposure	1.015***
t-statistic	[2.74]
Change in AGI per return, top 5%		−0.001	−0.020***
t-statistic		[−0.69]	[−5.10]
Change in AGI per return, next 15%		0.092**	0.575***
t-statistic		[2.29]	[3.34]
Change in AGI per return, bottom 80%		0.076	0.403
t-statistic		[0.54]	[0.43]
Tax burden on top 5%		−17077	16277
t-statistic		[−1.35]	[1.41]
Tax burden on next 15%		26227	−9935
t-statistic		[1.30]	[−0.50]
Tax burden on next 80%		−23143*	−16339
t-statistic		[−1.90]	[−1.38]
Change in AGI * Burden, top 5%			0.296***
t-statistic			[5.00]
Change in AGI * Burden, next 15%			−6.116***
t-statistic			[−3.11]
Change in AGI * Burden, bottom 80%			−3.114
t-statistic			[−0.34]
Constant	121	1217*	1181
t-statistic	[0.99]	[1.98]	[0.69]
No. of observations	48	48	48
Adjusted R-squared	0.122	0.247	0.573