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Table 6 Effects of ERA on employment, earnings, and benefits within 5 years after random assignment, New Deal for Lone Parents, Working Tax Credit, and New Deal 25 Plus target groups

From: Breaking the low pay, no pay cycle: the effects of the UK Employment Retention and Advancement programme

Outcome

NDLP

WTC

ND25+

ERA group

Control group

Difference (impact)

Percentage change

ERA group

Control group

Difference (impact)

Percentage change

ERA group

Control group

Difference (impact)

Percentage change

Ever employed (%)

 Year 1

57.1

56.5

0.6

1.0

77.0

76.6

0.4

0.6

37.3

35.4

1.9*

5.3

 Year 2

57.8

55.6

2.2*

3.9

74.1

73.4

0.8

1.0

36.3

32.7

3.6***

11.0

 Year 3

53.7

53.8

-0.2

-0.3

71.2

69.9

1.3

1.8

34.6

32.5

2.1*

6.6

 Year 4

53.2

54.0

-0.8

-1.5

71.3

70.1

1.2

1.8

35.0

32.1

2.9***

9.1

 Year 5

52.9

53.9

-1.0

-1.8

68.6

68.2

0.3

0.5

32.8

30.9

1.9*

6.0

 Years 1-5

79.0

79.0

-0.1

-0.1

88.1

86.8

1.3

1.5

57.3

55.1

2.2*

4.0

Average earnings (£)

 2005-2006 tax year

3,862

3,554

308**

8.7

7,069

6,667

402**

6.0

3,070

2,758

312**

11.3

 2006-2007 tax year

4,032

3,883

150

3.9

7,408

7,071

337

4.8

3,447

3,104

342**

11.0

 2007-2008 tax year

4,387

4,271

116

2.7

7,502

7,555

-53

-0.7

3,692

3,228

464***

14.4

 2008-2009 tax year

4,999

5,033

-35

-0.7

8,636

8,401

234

2.8

3,954

3,591

363**

10.1

 2005-2009 tax years, 4-year earnings

17,280

16,742

538

3.2

30,615

29,695

921

3.1

14,162

12,681

1,481**

11.7

Average total amount of benefitsa received (£)

 Year 1

2,915

3,055

-140**

-4.6

190

201

-11

-5.4

2,359

2,406

-48

-2.0

 Year 2

2,000

2,130

-130**

-6.1

218

221

-3

-1.4

1,457

1,581

-124***

-7.8

 Year 3

1,663

1,773

-110*

-6.2

254

241

13

5.3

1,244

1,358

-115***

-8.4

 Year 4

1,458

1,542

-84

-5.4

243

220

23

10.3

1,038

1,099

-61*

-5.6

 Year 5

1,314

1,349

-35

-2.6

285

266

19

7.1

970

1,048

-78**

-7.5

 Years 1-5

9,349

9,848

-499**

-5.1

1,190

1,149

40

3.5

7,067

7,493

-426***

-5.7

  1. SOURCE: MDRC calculations from Work and Pensions Longitudinal Study employment and benefits receipt records
  2. NOTES: Estimates were regression-adjusted using ordinary least squares, controlling for pre-random assignment characteristics of sample members
  3. Rounding may cause slight discrepancies in calculating sums and differences
  4. Two-tailed t-tests were applied to differences between outcomes for the ERA group and the control group. Statistical significance levels are indicated as: * = 10 per cent; ** = 5 per cent; and *** = 1 per cent
  5. Includes all customers randomly assigned between October 2003 and April 2005
  6. aBenefits refers to Income Support for New Deal for Lone Parents customers, a combination of Income Support and Jobseeker’s Allowance for Working Tax Credit customers, and Jobseeker’s Allowance for New Deal 25 Plus customers