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Table 3 Predicted 5-year average earnings of DI workers before and after FMR

From: Earnings after DI: evidence from full medical continuing disability reviews

  Continued Ceased Impact (β)d
Mean pre-eligibility earnings ($)a 19,518 19,331 −188
Mean post-FMR earnings ($)a 1477 12,819 11,342
Ratio (2/1) 0.1 0.7  
Any post-FMR earnings (%) 26.7 69.6 42.9
 In all follow-up years 7.6 36.7 29.1
Percent with post-FMR earnings at or above
 Pre-eligibility earningsb 9.9 48.3 38.4
  In all follow-up years 2.8 17.0 14.2
 Potential benefitb c 7.9 52.6 44.8
  In all follow-up yearsc 1.2 19.8 18.6
 SGAb 6.9 51.5 44.6
  In all follow-up years 1.1 19.6 18.5
 Povertyb 7.4 52.2 44.8
  In all follow-up years 1.1 20.1 18.9
 Full-time minimum wageb 6.0 49.1 43.1
  In all follow-up years 0.9 18.0 17.1
N 2,124,835
  1. Source: Authors’ calculations using Social Security administrative records
  2. Data are adjusted by the Consumer Price Index-Urban (2012 = 100). See Fig. 2 for list of control variables
  3. aEarnings are based on up to 5 years before DI eligibility and 5 years after the final FMR decision. If an individual had fewer than 5 years of earnings in the respective period, then the mean is taken from however many years are available. Estimates include years with $0 earnings
  4. bIndicates if any year of earnings in the (up to) 5 years after the FMR (not including the year of the final decision) is greater than or equal to the annualized threshold
  5. c118,195 do not have PIA and are not included in the benefit estimates
  6. dAll estimates are significant at the <1 % level