The changing graduate labour market: analysis using a new indicator of graduate jobs

Table 7 Change in the probability for male graduates to move from non-employment to graduate work: marginal effects of non-employment in (t–1) on graduate work in t

Note: Results from a multinomial probit model: \( \operatorname{P}\left(\mathrm{Jbstat}\right) = {\alpha}_1*\mathrm{l}\mathrm{u}\mathrm{e} + {\alpha}_2*\mathrm{period} + {\alpha}_3\left(\mathrm{l}\mathrm{u}\mathrm{e}*\mathrm{period}\right) + \beta X + e \). Marginal effects calculated for the transition from lagged non-employment to graduate work. Model (2) includes dummy for ages >40, non-White ethnicity, married, children under 16 in the household, and residence in London or the South-East. Model (3) adds the initial value of the dependent variable and within-panel means of time-varying variables as well as the initial values of time-varying values to the list of covariates to address the initial condition problem and correlations between observed and unobserved individual characteristics following Wooldridge (2005) and Rabe-Hesketh and Skrondal (2013). Standard errors in parentheses. *p < .1; **p < .05; ***p < .01