Table 5 Treatment of the labor market variables for the economic cycle
After, with cycle correction | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Group | Variable | Before | After | After-Before | Estimate | Confidence interval |
15–24 | Unemployment rate | 10.0% | 8.7% | 10.0% | [9.0%, 11.0%] | |
Avg dur of unemployment | 12.1 | 11.2 | 11.0 | [7.6, 14.4] | ||
Labor force participation | 46.9% | 46.4% | 45.7% | [45.0%, 46.3%] | ||
Employment/pop 15–64 | 42.2% | 42.3% | 40.8% | [39.9%, 41.7%] | ||
Unemployment/pop 15–64 | 4.7% | 4.4% | 5.0% | [3.9%, 6.0%] | ||
25–29 | Unemployment rate | 5.9% | 4.6% | −1.3% | ||
Control | Avg dur of unemployment | 17.6 | 17.8 | 0.2 | ||
Labor force participation | 85.7% | 86.4% | 0.8% | |||
Employment/pop 15–64 | 80.6% | 82.1% | 1.5% | |||
Unemployment/pop 15–64 | 5.0% | 4.5% | −0.5% | |||
30–34 | Unemployment rate | 4.9% | 3.8% | 4.6% | [4.2%, 4.9%] | |
Avg dur of unemployment | 23.7 | 21.4 | 25.4 | [21.5, 29.2] | ||
Labor force participation | 87.9% | 88.4% | 86.8% | [86.2%, 87.4%] | ||
Employment/pop 15–64 | 83.7% | 85.2% | 83.2% | [82.6%, 83.9%] | ||
Unemployment/pop 15–64 | 4.3% | 3.6% | 3.9% | [3.5%, 4.3%] | ||
35–39 | Unemployment rate | 4.0% | 3.2% | −0.8% | ||
Control | Avg dur of unemployment | 22.2 | 18.2 | −4.0 | ||
Labor force participation | 86.2% | 87.7% | 1.6% | |||
Employment/pop 15–64 | 82.7% | 84.6% | 1.9% | |||
Unemployment/pop 15–64 | 3.4% | 3.1% | −0.4% | |||
40–44 | Unemployment rate | 3.8% | 3.3% | 4.1% | [3.8%, 4.5%] | |
Avg dur of unemployment | 28.0 | 23.4 | 27.4 | [23.6, 31.3] | ||
Labor force participation | 86.1% | 86.0% | 84.5% | [83.9%, 85.0%] | ||
Employment/pop 15–64 | 82.8% | 83.2% | 81.2% | [80.6%, 81.9%] | ||
Unemployment/pop 15–64 | 3.3% | 3.0% | 3.3% | [2.9%, 3.7%] | ||