Table 3 Duration model estimates: transition to employment
Variables | No heterogeneity | Unobserved heterogeneity: base model | Unobserved heterogeneity: model with interactions | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
b | eb−1 | s.e. | p val. | b | eb−1 | s.e. | p val. | b | eb−1 | s.e. | p val. | |
Constant | − 1.28 | − 0.72 | 0.06 | 0.000 | 0.25 | 0.29 | 0.32 | 0.433 | 0.23 | 0.26 | 0.59 | 0.697 |
Gender (reference man) | − 0.09 | − 0.09 | 0.02 | 0.000 | − 0.54 | − 0.41 | 0.11 | 0.000 | − 0.45 | − 0.36 | 0.17 | 0.009 |
Age | − 0.02 | − 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.000 | − 0.13 | − 0.12 | 0.01 | 0.000 | − 0.12 | − 0.11 | 0.01 | 0.000 |
Age squared/100 | − 0.05 | − 0.05 | 0.01 | 0.000 | − 0.24 | − 0.21 | 0.06 | 0.000 | − 0.22 | − 0.20 | 0.07 | 0.001 |
# months unempl. in the preceding 2 years | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.235 | − 0.01 | − 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.149 | − 0.01 | − 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.429 |
Educational level | ||||||||||||
No secondary | − 0.25 | − 0.22 | 0.05 | 0.000 | − 1.09 | − 0.66 | 0.24 | 0.000 | − 1.24 | − 0.71 | 0.31 | 0.000 |
Secondary | − 0.19 | − 0.17 | 0.06 | 0.001 | − 0.89 | − 0.59 | 0.28 | 0.001 | − 0.97 | − 0.62 | 0.31 | 0.002 |
Tertiary education (outside university) | − 0.06 | − 0.06 | 0.05 | 0.180 | − 0.32 | − 0.27 | 0.23 | 0.162 | − 0.41 | − 0.34 | 0.24 | 0.083 |
Tertiary (university) (reference) | ||||||||||||
Educational track (if secondary level) | ||||||||||||
General track | − 0.08 | − 0.07 | 0.05 | 0.130 | − 0.50 | − 0.39 | 0.26 | 0.052 | − 0.45 | − 0.36 | 0.33 | 0.172 |
Technical track | 0.02 | 0.02 | 0.04 | 0.648 | 0.16 | 0.18 | 0.19 | 0.381 | 0.06 | 0.06 | 0.24 | 0.802 |
Vocational track | 0.05 | 0.05 | 0.04 | 0.195 | − 0.09 | − 0.09 | 0.18 | 0.629 | − 0.04 | − 0.04 | 0.23 | 0.853 |
Province of residence | ||||||||||||
Antwerp (reference) | ||||||||||||
Vlaams Brabant | − 0.21 | − 0.19 | 0.04 | 0.000 | − 1.47 | − 0.77 | 0.22 | 0.000 | − 1.30 | − 0.73 | 0.25 | 0.000 |
West Vlaanderen | − 0.03 | − 0.03 | 0.04 | 0.413 | − 0.31 | − 0.27 | 0.14 | 0.031 | − 0.23 | − 0.21 | 0.17 | 0.162 |
Oost Vlaanderen | − 0.06 | − 0.06 | 0.03 | 0.037 | − 0.36 | − 0.30 | 0.15 | 0.014 | − 0.26 | − 0.23 | 0.15 | 0.090 |
Limburg | 0.02 | 0.02 | 0.03 | 0.466 | 0.15 | 0.16 | 0.17 | 0.386 | 0.13 | 0.14 | 0.18 | 0.471 |
Driving license | 0.22 | 0.24 | 0.03 | 0.000 | 1.50 | 3.50 | 0.19 | 0.000 | 1.29 | 2.64 | 0.25 | 0.000 |
Mother tongue = Dutch | 0.25 | 0.29 | 0.03 | 0.000 | 1.22 | 2.39 | 0.14 | 0.000 | 1.27 | 2.56 | 0.18 | 0.000 |
Belgian | 0.07 | 0.07 | 0.04 | 0.098 | 0.43 | 0.54 | 0.19 | 0.026 | 0.48 | 0.61 | 0.42 | 0.253 |
Regional unemployment rate (time varying) | − 0.08 | − 0.08 | 0.01 | 0.000 | − 0.50 | − 0.39 | 0.03 | 0.000 | − 0.51 | − 0.40 | 0.03 | 0.000 |
Baseline hazard | ||||||||||||
Months 28–45 | − 2.70 | − 0.93 | 0.16 | 0.000 | 2.29 | 8.85 | 0.29 | 0.000 | 1.96 | 6.09 | 0.31 | 0.000 |
Months 17–28 | − 2.31 | − 0.90 | 0.09 | 0.000 | 2.02 | 6.56 | 0.22 | 0.000 | 1.86 | 5.45 | 0.23 | 0.000 |
Months 13–16 | − 1.63 | − 0.80 | 0.07 | 0.000 | 2.02 | 6.56 | 0.19 | 0.000 | 1.90 | 5.71 | 0.19 | 0.000 |
Months 11–12 | − 1.29 | − 0.73 | 0.07 | 0.000 | 2.04 | 6.70 | 0.17 | 0.000 | 1.95 | 6.03 | 0.17 | 0.000 |
Months 9–10 | − 1.17 | − 0.69 | 0.06 | 0.000 | 1.86 | 5.41 | 0.14 | 0.000 | 1.78 | 4.93 | 0.15 | 0.000 |
8th month | − 1.02 | − 0.64 | 0.06 | 0.000 | 1.75 | 4.78 | 0.13 | 0.000 | 1.68 | 4.39 | 0.13 | 0.000 |
7th month | − 0.99 | − 0.63 | 0.06 | 0.000 | 1.56 | 3.77 | 0.12 | 0.000 | 1.50 | 3.50 | 0.12 | 0.000 |
6th month | − 0.92 | − 0.60 | 0.05 | 0.000 | 1.36 | 2.88 | 0.10 | 0.000 | 1.31 | 2.70 | 0.10 | 0.000 |
5th month | − 0.84 | − 0.57 | 0.04 | 0.000 | 1.14 | 2.11 | 0.08 | 0.000 | 1.10 | 2.00 | 0.09 | 0.000 |
4th month | − 0.60 | − 0.45 | 0.04 | 0.000 | 0.99 | 1.69 | 0.07 | 0.000 | 0.96 | 1.62 | 0.07 | 0.000 |
3rd month | − 0.32 | − 0.27 | 0.03 | 0.000 | 0.69 | 0.99 | 0.05 | 0.000 | 0.67 | 0.95 | 0.05 | 0.000 |
2nd month (reference) | ||||||||||||
Effect of referral | ||||||||||||
Month of referral and next month | 0.55 | 0.74 | 0.05 | 0.000 | 1.12 | 2.07 | 0.11 | 0.000 | 1.14 | 2.11 | 0.21 | 0.000 |
Afterwards | 0.30 | 0.35 | 0.07 | 0.000 | 1.12 | 2.08 | 0.16 | 0.000 | 1.12 | 2.05 | 0.25 | 0.000 |
Effect of invitation | ||||||||||||
Month of invitation and next month | 0.31 | 0.37 | 0.05 | 0.000 | 0.80 | 1.23 | 0.12 | 0.000 | 0.80 | 1.23 | 0.20 | 0.000 |
Afterwards | 0.13 | 0.14 | 0.07 | 0.050 | 0.82 | 1.28 | 0.17 | 0.000 | 0.77 | 1.17 | 0.25 | 0.000 |
Effect of automatic referral | ||||||||||||
Month of automatic referral and next month | 0.06 | 0.06 | 0.09 | 0.521 | 0.41 | 0.51 | 0.15 | 0.006 | 0.42 | 0.53 | 0.22 | 0.059 |
Afterwards | 0.24 | 0.28 | 0.09 | 0.007 | 0.70 | 1.01 | 0.19 | 0.000 | 0.71 | 1.03 | 0.26 | 0.007 |
Interaction with | ||||||||||||
Unemployment duration when treated | − 0.01 | − 0.01 | 0.03 | 0.806 | ||||||||
Unemployment duration squared/100 | 0.14 | 0.15 | 0.10 | 0.156 | ||||||||
Tertiary educational level | − 0.11 | − 0.10 | 0.13 | 0.386 | ||||||||
Age | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 0.915 | ||||||||
Age squared/100 | − 0.02 | − 0.02 | 0.07 | 0.719 | ||||||||
Gender (reference = man) | − 0.03 | − 0.03 | 0.11 | 0.765 | ||||||||
Unemployment rate in month of treatment | 0.12 | 0.13 | 0.04 | 0.001 | ||||||||
Unobserved heterogeneity | ||||||||||||
Treatment 2 | 0.46 | 0.59 | 0.30 | 0.127 | 0.52 | 0.69 | 0.33 | 0.109 | ||||
Employment 2 | 2.71 | 14.05 | 0.16 | 0.000 | 2.57 | 12.11 | 0.19 | 0.000 | ||||
Masspoint 2 | 0.48 | 0.62 | 0.10 | 0.000 | 0.49 | 0.64 | 0.13 | 0.000 | ||||
Treatment 3 | 0.33 | 0.39 | 0.24 | 0.161 | 0.31 | 0.36 | 0.29 | 0.290 | ||||
Employment 3 | − 8.14 | − 1.00 | 0.36 | 0.000 | − 7.84 | − 1.00 | 0.38 | 0.000 | ||||
Masspoint 3 | − 1.66 | − 0.81 | 0.18 | 0.000 | − 1.61 | − 0.80 | 0.22 | 0.000 | ||||
Treatment 4 | 0.20 | 0.22 | 0.17 | 0.261 | 0.24 | 0.28 | 0.20 | 0.221 | ||||
Employment 4 | − 2.13 | − 0.88 | 0.13 | 0.000 | − 2.00 | − 0.87 | 0.18 | 0.000 | ||||
Masspoint 4 | − 0.44 | − 0.36 | 0.09 | 0.000 | − 0.39 | − 0.32 | 0.12 | 0.001 | ||||
Treatment 5 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.15 | 0.954 | 0.06 | 0.06 | 0.18 | 0.750 | ||||
Employment 5 | − 4.05 | − 0.98 | 0.20 | 0.000 | − 3.89 | − 0.98 | 0.23 | 0.000 | ||||
Masspoint 5 | − 0.55 | − 0.42 | 0.10 | 0.000 | − 0.44 | − 0.36 | 0.15 | 0.003 | ||||
Treatment 6 | 0.22 | 0.24 | 0.17 | 0.213 | 0.25 | 0.28 | 0.21 | 0.236 | ||||
Employment 6 | − 6.10 | − 1.00 | 0.29 | 0.000 | − 5.92 | − 1.00 | 0.32 | 0.000 | ||||
Masspoint 6 | − 1.06 | − 0.65 | 0.12 | 0.000 | − 0.96 | − 0.62 | 0.15 | 0.000 | ||||
Probability 1 | 0.23 | 0.22 | ||||||||||
Probability 2 | 0.37 | 0.36 | ||||||||||
Probability 3 | 0.04 | 0.04 | ||||||||||
Probability 4 | 0.15 | 0.15 | ||||||||||
Probability 5 | 0.13 | 0.14 | ||||||||||
Probability 6 | 0.08 | 0.08 | ||||||||||